International Consultancy: Demographic Resilience Reviews and Foresight

Job Posting Organization:
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is the lead United Nations agency focused on delivering a world where every pregnancy is intended, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. Established in 1969, UNFPA operates in over 150 countries and has a workforce of approximately 4,000 employees. The organization is dedicated to promoting reproductive health, gender equality, and sustainable development, aligning its efforts with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure that all individuals can access essential services and realize their rights. UNFPA's mission is to support member states in adapting to demographic changes through evidence-based policies and programs, emphasizing the importance of demographic resilience in achieving long-term development goals.

Job Overview:
The position of International Consultant for Demographic Resilience Reviews and Foresight at UNFPA involves conducting comprehensive demographic resilience reviews in selected countries. The consultant will analyze demographic changes, including shifts in population size, age composition, and territorial distribution, to forecast future demand for public goods and services such as education, healthcare, and social protection. This role is critical in helping governments understand the implications of demographic shifts on fiscal systems and public service provision. The consultant will collaborate with national consultants and UNFPA Country Offices to develop a standardized methodological approach for estimating future demand and fiscal implications, ensuring that the findings are relevant and actionable for policymakers. The consultant will also contribute to foresight analysis, integrating various factors that may influence public service demand and supply, thereby enhancing long-term planning capabilities for sustainable development.

Duties and Responsibilities:
The consultant will undertake a variety of tasks, including conducting a desk review of existing models for estimating future demand for public goods and services, developing a harmonized methodological approach in collaboration with counterparts, and generating estimates of future demand based on demographic changes over a 30-50 year horizon. The consultant will compile national and subnational population projections, analyze how demographic shifts will affect public budgets and fiscal balances, and develop comprehensive demographic resilience review reports for each selected country. Additionally, the consultant will facilitate discussions and validations of findings at national and multi-country levels, ensuring that the results are communicated effectively to stakeholders. The consultant will also document the methodological approach and provide practical implementation guidance for future applications of the framework in other contexts.

Required Qualifications:
Candidates must possess an advanced university degree in demography, economics, statistics, social sciences, GIS, foresight analysis, or related fields, with a PhD being highly preferable. A minimum of 15 years of relevant professional experience in demographic and economic analysis is required, along with demonstrated expertise in statistical and econometric modeling approaches. Candidates should have experience in macro-fiscal forecasting, public expenditure modeling, and spatial data disaggregation. Excellent analytical and writing skills are essential, as well as strong communication abilities. Familiarity with UNFPA's mandate and experience working in the Arab context are considered assets.

Educational Background:
The position requires an advanced university degree in relevant fields such as demography, economics, statistics, social sciences, GIS, or foresight analysis. A PhD in these areas is highly preferred, indicating a strong foundation in research and analytical methodologies pertinent to demographic studies and economic forecasting.

Experience:
Candidates should have a minimum of 15 years of professional experience in demographic and economic analysis, with a proven track record in statistical and econometric modeling. Experience in macro-fiscal forecasting and public expenditure modeling is essential, as well as familiarity with demographic resilience frameworks and methodologies. Previous work with UN agencies or international NGOs in economic policy areas will be advantageous, particularly in the context of the Arab region.

Languages:
Full professional proficiency in both written and oral English is mandatory. A working knowledge of Arabic or French is desirable, as it will facilitate communication and collaboration with local stakeholders and enhance the consultant's effectiveness in the region.

Additional Notes:
The consultancy is home-based, with a total duration of 45 working days spread from October 2026 to May 202

• Travel expenses for missions will be covered separately by UNFPA. The position emphasizes the importance of gender equality and diversity, encouraging applications from underrepresented groups, including women, LGBTQIA+ individuals, and persons with disabilities. UNFPA promotes a work environment that reflects its values of integrity, diversity, and healthy work-life balance, ensuring equal opportunities for all candidates.