Consultancy - Forecast Accuracy Specialist

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Position Title: Consultancy - Forecast Accuracy Specialist
Location: Addis Ababa
Country: Ethiopia
Deadline Date:

Job Details

Job Posting Organization:
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is the lead UN agency focused on sexual and reproductive health and rights, aiming to ensure that every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. Established in 1969, UNFPA operates in over 150 countries and has a workforce of approximately 4,000 employees. The organization is committed to achieving transformative results in public health, particularly in maternal health, family planning, and gender-based violence, as outlined in its strategic plan for 2022-202

• UNFPA emphasizes the importance of ethical staff who uphold international norms and standards, and who are dedicated to delivering high-impact results in their programs.

Job Overview:
The position of Forecast Accuracy Specialist involves ensuring the accuracy of forecasts related to sexual and reproductive health commodities. This role is crucial for maintaining adequate supplies to meet the needs of end-users and clients. The specialist will conduct a situation analysis to assess existing forecasting practices and data sources, develop methodologies for measuring and reporting forecast accuracy, and facilitate stakeholder consultations to ensure buy-in for the proposed methodologies. The ultimate goal is to enhance the forecasting capabilities of Ministries of Health, leading to improved resource allocation and public health outcomes. The specialist will also provide capacity building to relevant staff and develop a national forecasting accuracy measurement system, ensuring adherence to data governance policies.

Duties and Responsibilities:

• Conduct a situation analysis/rapid assessment of existing data sources and forecasting practices.
• Develop a comprehensive methodology for measuring, tracking, and reporting forecast accuracy, including defining the scope of forecast accuracy tracking and establishing robust data collection procedures.
• Facilitate stakeholder consultations with the Ministry of Health and other relevant stakeholders to gather input and ensure buy-in.
• Provide capacity building by training relevant staff on the application of the methodology and relevant tools.
• Develop and implement a national forecasting accuracy measurement system, including templates and dashboards for reporting.
• Ensure data governance by adhering to UNFPA's data privacy policies and promoting responsible data sharing practices.
• Conduct desk reviews, stakeholder interviews, and data analysis to validate findings and continuously improve the forecasting model.
• Present findings to stakeholders for validation and develop a final report detailing insights and recommendations.

Required Qualifications:

• An advanced degree in Supply Chain Management, Public Health, Statistics, Data Analytics, or related fields.
• Additional qualifications in health economics, policy and administration, or health systems management are considered an asset.
• A minimum of five years of progressively responsible professional experience in supply chain management or related roles.
• Proven expertise in forecasting methodologies and supply chain management in the public health sector.
• Experience in developing and implementing monitoring and evaluation frameworks.
• Familiarity with Forecasting Accuracy metrics and analytical tools is an asset.
• Strong professional written and spoken presentation skills, with the ability to synthesize complex documents for diverse audiences.
• Strong interpersonal skills and capability to develop and maintain partnerships.

Educational Background:
Candidates must possess an advanced degree in a relevant field such as Supply Chain Management, Public Health, Statistics, or Data Analytics. Additional qualifications in health economics, policy, or health systems management are advantageous.

Experience:
Candidates should have a minimum of five years of relevant experience in supply chain management or related fields, with a focus on public health. Experience in forecasting methodologies and the development of monitoring and evaluation frameworks is essential. Familiarity with analytical tools and metrics related to forecasting accuracy is also required.

Languages:
Fluency in English is mandatory. Knowledge of local languages is considered an asset, enhancing communication with local stakeholders and partners.

Additional Notes:
The consultancy will primarily be based in Ethiopia, with expected travel to Zambia for stakeholder consultations and assessments. The consultant will report regularly to the supervisor and team, with a minimum of weekly progress updates. A quarterly interim report will be required for feedback and approval. The consultant will work under the supervision of the Ethiopia country office Deputy Representative and collaborate closely with various teams. UNFPA promotes a work environment that values gender equality, diversity, and integrity, encouraging applications from underrepresented groups.