Consultancy - Forecast Accuracy Specialist

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Position Title: Consultancy - Forecast Accuracy Specialist
Location: Addis Ababa
Country: Ethiopia
Deadline Date:

Job Details

Job Posting Organization:
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is the lead UN agency focused on sexual and reproductive health and rights. Established in 1969, UNFPA operates in over 150 countries and has a mission to deliver a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. The organization emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision-making and aims to improve health outcomes through effective supply chain management and forecasting.

Job Overview:
The position of Forecast Accuracy Specialist is crucial for ensuring that the supply chain for sexual and reproductive health commodities is effectively managed. The role involves measuring the accuracy of forecasts related to these commodities, which is essential for preventing stockouts and ensuring that health systems are adequately supplied. The specialist will conduct a situation analysis, develop methodologies for tracking forecast accuracy, facilitate stakeholder consultations, provide capacity building, and implement a national forecasting accuracy measurement system. The ultimate goal is to enhance the forecasting capabilities of Ministries of Health, leading to better resource allocation and improved public health outcomes.

Duties and Responsibilities:

• Conduct a situation analysis to review existing data sources and forecasting practices, documenting contextual factors influencing demand planning.
• Develop a comprehensive methodology for measuring, tracking, and reporting forecast accuracy, including defining types of forecast errors and establishing robust data collection procedures.
• Facilitate stakeholder consultations to gather input and ensure buy-in for the methodology.
• Provide capacity building by training relevant staff in the Ministry of Health and partner organizations on the application of the methodology.
• Develop and implement a national forecasting accuracy measurement system, including templates and dashboards for reporting.
• Ensure data governance by adhering to UNFPA's data privacy policies and promoting responsible data sharing practices.
• Conduct desk reviews, stakeholder interviews, and data analysis to validate findings and continuously improve the forecasting model.

Required Qualifications:
Candidates must possess an advanced degree in Supply Chain Management, Public Health, Statistics, Data Analytics, or related fields. Additional qualifications in health economics, policy and administration, or health systems management are considered an asset. A minimum of five years of progressively responsible professional experience in supply chain management or related roles is required, along with proven expertise in forecasting methodologies and supply chain management in the public health sector. Familiarity with forecasting accuracy metrics and analytical tools is advantageous, as are strong interpersonal skills and the ability to develop and maintain partnerships.

Educational Background:
An advanced degree in either Supply Chain Management, Public Health disciplines, Statistics, Data Analytics, or other related fields is required. Additional qualifications in health economics, policy and administration, or health systems management are considered an asset.

Experience:
Candidates should have a minimum of five years of relevant progressively responsible professional experience in supply chain management or related roles. Proven expertise in forecasting methodologies and supply chain management in the public health sector is essential, along with experience in developing and implementing monitoring and evaluation frameworks.

Languages:
Fluency in English is required, while knowledge of local languages is considered an asset.

Additional Notes:
The consultancy will primarily be based in Ethiopia, with expected travel to Zambia for stakeholder consultations and assessments. Regular progress reporting with the supervisor and team is required, with a minimum of weekly updates. The consultant will work under the supervision of the Ethiopia country office Deputy Representative and collaborate closely with various teams. The position promotes gender equality and encourages applications from women and underrepresented groups.