Forecast Accuracy Consultant

Job Advertisement

Position Title: Forecast Accuracy Consultant
Location: Ethiopia
Country: Ethiopia
Deadline Date: Not specified

Job Details

Job Posting Organization:
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is the lead UN agency focused on sexual and reproductive health and rights. Established in 1969, UNFPA operates in over 150 countries and has a mission to ensure that every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. The organization emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision-making and aims to improve health outcomes through effective supply chain management and forecasting.

Job Overview:
The position of Forecast Accuracy Consultant is crucial for ensuring that the forecasting of sexual and reproductive health commodities aligns with actual consumption. The consultant will be responsible for conducting a situation analysis, developing methodologies for measuring and reporting forecast accuracy, facilitating stakeholder consultations, providing capacity building, and implementing a national forecasting accuracy measurement system. The role requires a systematic approach to enhance the forecasting capabilities of Ministries of Health, ultimately leading to better resource allocation and improved public health outcomes. The consultant will work closely with UNFPA country offices and other stakeholders to ensure that the methodologies developed are practical and effective in addressing the challenges faced in demand forecasting.

Duties and Responsibilities:

• Conduct a situation analysis/rapid assessment by reviewing existing data sources and forecasting practices, analyzing forecast accuracy data, and providing recommendations for improvement.
• Develop a comprehensive methodology for measuring, tracking, and reporting forecast accuracy, including defining the scope, establishing data collection procedures, and determining appropriate methodologies for measuring forecast accuracy.
• Facilitate stakeholder consultations to gather input and ensure buy-in for the methodology.
• Provide capacity building by training relevant staff in the Ministry of Health and partner organizations on the application of the methodology.
• Develop and implement a national forecasting accuracy measurement system, including creating templates and dashboards for reporting.
• Ensure data governance by adhering to UNFPA's data privacy policies and promoting responsible data sharing practices.
• Conduct desk reviews, stakeholder interviews, data analysis, and validation of findings to continuously improve the forecasting model.

Required Qualifications:

• An advanced degree in Supply Chain Management, Public Health, Statistics, Data Analytics, or related fields.
• Additional qualifications in health economics, policy and administration, or health systems management are an asset.
• A minimum of five years of progressively responsible professional experience in supply chain management or related roles.
• Proven expertise in forecasting methodologies and supply chain management in the public health sector.
• Experience in developing and implementing monitoring and evaluation frameworks.
• Familiarity with Forecasting Accuracy metrics and analytical tools is an asset.
• Strong professional written and spoken presentation skills, with the ability to synthesize complex documents for diverse audiences.
• Strong interpersonal skills and capability to develop and maintain partnerships.

Educational Background:
Candidates must possess an advanced degree in relevant fields such as Supply Chain Management, Public Health, Statistics, or Data Analytics. Additional qualifications in health economics or health systems management are considered advantageous.

Experience:
The position requires a minimum of five years of relevant professional experience in supply chain management or related roles. Candidates should have proven expertise in forecasting methodologies and experience in developing monitoring and evaluation frameworks, particularly in the public health sector.

Languages:
Fluency in English is mandatory. Knowledge of local languages is considered an asset, enhancing communication with local stakeholders and communities.

Additional Notes:
The consultant will primarily be based in Ethiopia, with expected travel to Zambia for stakeholder engagement and assessments. Regular progress reporting is required, with a minimum of weekly updates to the supervisor. The consultant will work under the supervision of the Ethiopia country office Deputy Representative and collaborate with various teams. The position emphasizes the importance of gender equality and diversity, encouraging applications from underrepresented groups.