Local Consultant - ZDHS Fertility Dynamics and Reproductive Preferences

Job Posting Organization:
The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program is a globally recognized initiative established in 1984 under the sponsorship of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The program is dedicated to collecting, analyzing, and disseminating representative data on various demographic and health indicators, including population, fertility, maternal and child health, nutrition, and family planning. The DHS Program has a rich history in Zimbabwe, having conducted multiple rounds of surveys since 1988, with the most recent being the 2023/24 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS). The organization aims to support partner countries in tracking progress toward strategic developmental targets and informing evidence-based policy and program planning.

Job Overview:
The primary purpose of this consultancy is to conduct a rigorous secondary analysis of fertility dynamics, reproductive preferences, and related variables in the 2023/24 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) dataset. The consultant will produce a publication-quality thematic report by applying advanced demographic and statistical methods, including multivariable regression and other appropriate modeling techniques. The analysis will focus on identifying fertility levels, determinants, reproductive intentions, fertility preferences, unmet need for family planning, birth spacing, and inequalities across population groups. Additionally, the consultant will examine associations between fertility dynamics and key demographic, socio-economic, and reproductive health outcomes, such as contraceptive use, age at first birth, educational attainment, women's empowerment, and the demographic dividend. The findings will generate policy-relevant evidence to strengthen national population planning, reproductive health programming, and evidence-based resource allocation to support sustainable development in Zimbabwe.

Duties and Responsibilities:
The consultant will work under the guidance of the UNFPA Zimbabwe Representative and the direct supervision of the Strategic Information and Policy Specialist. Key responsibilities include:

• Conducting an in-depth secondary analysis of the Fertility and fertility preferences module and related indicators from the 2023/24 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS).
• Applying multivariate demographic models to identify the socioeconomic, behavioral, and geographic determinants of fertility levels, timing of childbearing, and birth spacing.
• Modeling factors influencing fertility preferences, desired family size, and the mismatch between fertility intentions and reproductive outcomes to identify populations at risk of unintended childbearing.
• Quantifying fertility inequalities across population groups and simulating the implications of changing fertility patterns for population growth, dependency, and Zimbabwe's demographic dividend.
• Undertaking additional analyses of relevant ZDHS 2023/24 modules and indicators that contribute to Young People and SRHR thematic area.
• Appropriately accounting for the complex DHS survey design by applying sampling weights, clustering, and stratification in all analyses.
• Utilizing statistical methods such as descriptive statistics, logistic regression, multinomial logistic regression, Poisson regression, Cox proportional hazards models, and multilevel models as needed.

Required Qualifications:
The ideal consultant must possess a track record in complex demographic modeling, survey data analysis, and the translation of quantitative evidence into strategic policy outputs. Minimum qualifications and competencies include:

• A minimum of 7 to 10 years of professional experience in conducting complex secondary data analysis and statistical modeling, with a focus on Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) or Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS).
• Mastery of hierarchical dataset structures and standard DHS recode file formats.
• Expert-level programming skills in Stata or R, with the ability to write clean, fully documented syntax files that incorporate complex survey design parameters.
• Demonstrated experience in data visualization, including spatial mapping using GIS and the generation of structured, high-impact graphs and matrices.
• Strong understanding of fertility determinants, patterns, trends, and differentials, including fertility preferences, reproductive intentions, desired family size, age at first marriage and first birth, birth spacing, parity progression, fertility decision-making, and unintended childbearing.

Educational Background:
A Master’s degree or a PhD in Demography, Social Statistics, Public Health, Sociology, Epidemiology, or a related field is required for this position. This educational background is essential to ensure that the consultant possesses the necessary theoretical knowledge and analytical skills to conduct the required demographic analyses effectively.

Experience:
The consultant should have a minimum of 7 to 10 years of professional experience in conducting complex secondary data analysis and statistical modeling. This experience should include a proven focus on Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) or Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), demonstrating the ability to handle complex datasets and apply advanced statistical techniques to derive meaningful insights.

Languages:
Excellent communication skills in English are mandatory for this position. The ability to communicate complex statistical and demographic concepts clearly and effectively is crucial for translating findings into policy-relevant outputs and engaging with various stakeholders.

Additional Notes:
The UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, integrity, and a healthy work-life balance. The organization encourages women and individuals from underrepresented groups, including the LGBTQIA+ community, minority ethnic groups, and persons with disabilities, to apply. Reasonable accommodations may be provided to applicants with disabilities upon request. UNFPA promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation, and selection for all, regardless of personal characteristics. The position may involve a consultancy contract, and details regarding the duration, seniority level, and compensation will be discussed during the recruitment process.