Consultant (Incorporating Oil & Gas in National Accounts / Capacity Building for The Bank of Guyana on National Accounts and Macroeconomic Analyses Within The Oil and Gas Economy)
Consultant for incorporating Oil & Gas in National Accounts / Capacity Building for the Bank of Guyana on national accounts and macroeconomic analyses within the oil and gas economy Background of this search: The Connectivity Markets and Finance (CMF) Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is currently supporting a Technical Cooperation, ATN/OC-17831-GY: (GY-T1166), to strengthen the institutional capacity of two key national institutions: the Bank of Guyana (BoG) and the National Insurance Scheme (NIS). Under this job opportunity, the CMF Division expects to assist the BoG also known as “the Central Bank” to improve its accounting of the financial flows emanating from the oil and gas sector by strengthening its national accounts and balance of payments methods considering the new economic context, strengthening its analytical capabilities developing modeling tools to analyze the flow of oil revenues, and ensuring the effects are incorporated into updated monetary and exchange rates policies. They are looking for a Senior Macroeconomist (Oil & Gas) Consultant with a strong background in economics and public policy, experience working in research or policy departments of Central Banks, and highly experienced in oil producing countries to help build the institutional capacity of the Bank of Guyana. Guyana’s economy has traditionally been highly concentrated in mining and Agriculture, with these two sectors making up approximately 30% of the whole economy. The economy has been stable with an average GDP growth rate of 4.0% between 2009-2018. Other key macroeconomic indicators have also remained relatively stable for prolonged periods. The annual inflation rate averaged 2% over the last decade and currency depreciation has been negligible. However, with recent oil findings of offshore oil reservoirs and first oil production projected for 2020 Guyana is set to experience a new set of economic opportunities as well as challenges. Since 2015 there have been a total of 14 oil discoveries with estimated recoverable oil-equivalent reserves of more than 6 billion barrels. Oil production is expected to begin in 2020, initially with 120,000 barrels per day (bpd). Production is expected to increase with production starting at two other oil fields in 2022 and 2023 with combined production volumes of an additional 440,000 bpd by 2023. ExxonMobil claims to have the potential to produce at least 750,000 bpd by 2025. Based on production at the first two oil fields, the IMF estimates that Guyana’s economy will grow by 85% in 2020 and that average Economic Growth between 2020 and 2024 will be approximately 28%. Oil exports as a share of GDP are expected to grow from 30% of GDP in 2020 to 55% in 2024. These developments are expected to have profound economic impacts mainly affecting the fiscal sector. The public sector is expected to benefit from increased revenues (profit-sharing and royalties). Government oil-related revenues are expected to exceed US$3 billion in the mid-2020s in an economy that currently has a GDP of US$3.6 billion. The external sector will also be affected by greater foreign direct investment as the economy prepares to become an oil producer with great and growing trade surpluses reaching 62% of GDP in 2024, after the start of oil production. Although these developments seem inherently beneficial for the economy, they are expected to have significant implications for price levels and exchange rate stability. Government has created the Natural Resource Fund (NRF), an important first step to safeguard macroeconomic stability. By the Design of the NRF, all oil revenues will be channeled to a savings account abroad and transferred gradually to the National Budget on an annual basis. In the short-term, when oil revenues are relatively small, a large share of oil revenues are expected to be transferred to the budget. As oil production grows, a smaller share of oil revenues would be transferred to the budget and in the long-term, annual transfers to the budget will be limited to 3% of the balance of the NRF. All transfers from the NRF to the budget are earmarked for Economic Development activities. In this context, the Bank of Guyana is seeking to strengthen its institutional capacity and be prepared for the upcoming oil boom. The team’s mission: The IDB Connectivity Markets and Finance Division together with the IDB Country Office in Guyana lead the Bank’s support on this project in collaboration with the Governor of the Central Bank of Guyana. What you’ll do: The scope of work for the Consultant will include but not be limited to, the following:Apply Now
- Review and provide recommendations to update current inflation and exchange rate polices and guidelines for implementation to ensure adequate provisions are made for O&G. This should be based on best practices in similar (oil) economies and to maintain macroeconomic stability in Guyana.
- Develop modeling tools to analyze the flow of oil revenues from the Natural Resource Fund into the budget as these may have implications for the economy in terms of inflation, currency value, and real exchange rate. The capacities to monitor these developments need to be strengthened.
- Compile national accounts data in Coordination with the Bureau of Statistics. The Bureau of Statistics is currently the branch of the government responsible preparing the national accounts which are later supplied to the Bank of Guyana. In order to assure the quality of the updated national accounts data, the consultant will have to collaborate with the Bureau of Statistics.
- Ensure that the balance of payments and all other reports and systems at the Central Bank adequately account and capture the financial flows emanating from the O&G sector.
- Transfer knowledge to the various staff within the Bank of Guyana, on the modelling tools and new policy guidelines as well as staff of the Bureau of Statistics to maximize transfer relevant knowledge and skills.
- Deliverable 1: Inception Report
- Deliverable 2: Report on the modelling tools developed
- Deliverable 3: Macroeconomic Policy Recommendations Report
- Deliverable 4: Report on Training Activities
- Deliverable 1: Upon completion of finalized of Inception Report 20%
- Deliverable 2: Upon completion of finalized Report on modelling tools developed 30%
- Deliverable 3: Upon completion of finalized Report on recommendations for Monetary and Exchange Rate policies and guidelines 30%
- Deliverable 4: Upon completion of Finalized Report on training activities 20%
- Citizenship: You must be a citizen of one of the IDB’s 48 member countries.
- Consanguinity: You have no family members (up to fourth degree of consanguinity and second degree of affinity, including spouse) working at the IDB Group.
- Education: Master’s Degree in Economics, Social Sciences, Public Policy, Law, or any related field.
- Experience: More than 10 years’ experience working in research or policy departments of Central Banks or related field. Experience in oil producing countries is a must.
- Languages: Proficiency English is required.
- Professional/technical knowledge in completing national accounts statistics.
- Extensive experience and expertise with System of National Accounts Statistics.
- Experience in the application of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual of the IMF (BPM6).
- Monetary and Flexible Exchange Rate Policy Implementation.
- Type of Contract and modality: Products and External Services Consultant (PEC), Lump Sum.
- Length of contract: 12.5 months.
- Location: The Central Bank of Guyana and remote work at country of origin.
- Responsible person: Coordination and technical supervision of the consultancy will be carried out by CJA/CMF, Financial Markets Senior Specialist, IDB in collaboration with Governor of the Central Bank in Guyana.
- Requirements: You must be a citizen of one of the IDB’s 48 member countries and have no family members currently working at the IDB Group.